Archive for category Sustainability

Oil Hits $100

Well, that’s the way to start the year. I remember two summers ago telling some friends that this would happen, and they seemed pretty skeptical. It’s a different world now, as even the most happy-go-lucky among us has begun to realize. I’m sure you’ve read predictions for 2008 around the web and elsewhere. My intuition, combined with everything I read, combined with the things that have already come to pass and which have been predicted, tell me that this will be a very difficult year. I don’t know what specifically will go wrong. But things around the world are impossibly stacked and balanced on top of each other as if by Dr. Seuss himself, so as I see it, one wrong move and the whole thing comes down. And what are the chances of some idiot doing something stupid?

“Our enemies are innovative and resourceful, and so are we. They never stop thinking about new ways to harm our country and our people, and neither do we.” —Washington, D.C., Aug. 5, 2004

Yeah. You see what I mean.

Food, A Simple Thing

Food pantries across the country report very high demand for their help, forcing them to stretch their supplies by cutting portions. Many working people seek assistance because they simply don’t make a living wage.

Demand is being driven up by rising costs of food, housing, utilities, health care and gasoline, while food manufacturers, wholesalers and retailers are finding they have less surplus food to donate and government help has decreased, according to Lisa Hamler-Fugitt, executive director of the Ohio Association of Second Harvest Foodbanks.

[snip]

“We’ve lost factory jobs and many service jobs don’t pay a livable wage,” said Dick Stevens, director of the organization’s food and nutrition division. “We see a lot of desperation in families who are trying to figure out how to pay higher fuel and utility costs and still put food on the table.”

Most food banks and pantries aren’t optimistic about the coming winter.

I have a cookbook called The Ellis Island Immigrant Cookbook by Tom Bernardin. (Wimmer, 1991) It’s full of letters and stories from people who came to America in the late 1800s and early 1900s, and what they ate and how they lived. Many recipes are very simple, and each culture seems to have some version of things to cook with milk, eggs, flour, oil, salt and/or sugar. Since our country seems to be going back in time to the robber baron days, let me share a little story (circa 1910) from this book (p.131).

The recipes that I am giving are really what we were able to afford. I remember very lean years, for a long time to come, so we named them Poor Man’s recipes.

Poor Man’s Pizza

Everyone made their own bread. There were no bakeries in small towns, so my mother would take some bread dough and flatten it out on a cookie sheet or pizza pan and let it rise for half an hour. Again, then with her fingers, she would make indentations pressing her fingers down into the dough. She would brush it with olive oil and make sure it would go into the grooves, then sprinkle chopped garlic and oregano and bake for about 30 minutes at 400 degrees.

Poor Man’s Lunch (Panne Cotto)

Enough stale bread, as needed, broken up small. Put aside in a dish.

One large onion sauteed in 1/4 cup olive oil. When limp, add as much water as needed for the bread to soak. When the water and onion and oil have come to a good boil, break the eggs and poach them into the juice.

When your eggs are nicely coated and cooked to your taste, remove and pour over the stale bread till the bread is soaked and soft. Salt and pepper, to taste.

Of course, in the years since people have made millions of dollars taking recipes like these and marketing them into restaurants, cooking shows, books, etc. We’ve been summarily removed from our immigrant history, when the people who came to this country survived by their wits and skills. I mean, look at this recipe for “Rustic Flatbread” from Bon Appetit!, October 1997. Is it really very different from Poor Man’s Pizza? No, it just takes them three times as long to describe how to make it, turning it into some kind of marketing experience. “Oh, yes! Last night we made Rustic Flatbread in our new kitchen, and we had it with a Roumier burgundy, and it was just divine for an appetizer!”

You know what I mean? Someone should do a show on how to feed a family of four on $20 a week or something. Show people every kind of pancake they can make with eggs, flour, milk, salt and oil. I’d like to see them market that.

Crash Dynamics

This post from LATOC has some interesting nuggets. This guy writing had a long talk with his dad, a GM at a power plant in PA. He’s conveying the dad’s take on what they talk about around the big conference table at work. Come to find out, they’re desperate over the supply/demand issues and looking for solutions. Options to keep the lights on and prices reasonable include playing footsie with the grid, building coal plants and going nuclear.

Here is the catch, for everyone thinking nuclear will save our ass. He said it normally takes about 10 years to get a nuclear plant built. About 3 to go through all the red tape, and 7 to build one.

So I asked him, if the SHTF and they removed all the red tape, we would be looking about 7 years? He said, no… If the SHTF and the red tape is removed, we would be looking at around 15-20 years per plant. Apparently there are only a couple of companies in the US that can build these things. So you would have every utility across america competing for these two companies. You cant just expand operations like making cars, it takes years and years to train the engineers and the construction companies to build a nuke plant.

So I’m not sure how this fits together with this information, but here’s a thought or two…

First of all, whatever the prep work going on in DC, it hasn’t filtered down to the management at this power plant. It must not be common knowledge yet in the energy industry that the plan is “go nuclear”.

Secondly, this nice gentleman is operating under the assumption that highly trained people need to be involved in designing nuclear power plants. (I think this is where ethical people generally get lost in the plot twists. It happens to me all the time at the movies.) It’s a perfectly reasonable assumption, but it won’t hold up. We won’t have years and years to train people. Soon we will be in an emergency situation, and money will be sitting on the table. So whatever hurdles exist (technology, training, regulations, etc.) will be quickly overcome in the hour of need (the need to get that money off the table and into someone’s pockets). Dick Cheney, in his prescience, knew to prepare for this problem. That’s why he’s been working the regulatory piece on the QT. Once they gut the regulations, it will be quick work in a panicked, energy-deprived environment to get around any remaining hurdles.

Of course, this will put people at risk. And your point is??

Here’s the conclusion:

So after our four hour talk, we both came to the conclusion that it will be a hard crash. What we will likely see is a longer peak than alot of us had thought. The peak should last another 1-3 years, oil prices will climb drastically, but home heating will not follow suit at least for a year or two. Gas prices will climb, and force the economy into a deep recession. Once all of the demand has been killed and the less efficient plants are taken offline, and oil prices rise to where the efficient plants no longer offer any benefit, thats when all hell will break loose.

We think 1-3 years, then a hard fast crash.

Better get your preps done quickly.

This is if there are no geo political events. If we attack Iran, he said he expects oil prices to double on the attack and cause a nice fast crash NOW.

For what it’s worth.

The View from 100,000 Feet

If you read one thing today, make it this article by Richard Cook. Please note his background.

For Your Consideration

This gentleman, Karl Denniger, has a petition and he is looking for signers. First he has a rant, and a pretty good one.

We all go grocery shopping and we all buy gasoline. This winter your heating bill is going up - way up. Democrats in Congress have repeatedly blamed “greedy oil companies” over the last several years for the increases in the price of energy.

The truth is more complicated than that. By encouraging the “Wall Street Casino” through inappropriately low interest rates commodity prices - that is, oil, wheat, soybeans, orange juice, milk and metals - have all shot up in price at an incredible pace. This is real inflation and it hits you right where you live - in your food and energy bills. Yes, your computer and blue jeans are cheaper to buy, because some sweatshop in China makes them for you - a peasant who is paid 20 cents/hour sews those jeans. But those low interest rates have destroyed the value of our dollar, and those commodities, while priced in dollars, are largely mined and produced in other nations. As a result their price rises. Gasoline didn’t go from $1 to $3 because of greedy oil companies; it rose because you were lied to by your government and led to believe that a 1% interest rate was “good for our nation”, when in fact it was only good for a few Wall Street fat cats, while your grocery bill has doubled in the last seven years. And while computers are cheaper, you can’t eat them!

You know what the truth is in this matter. Look at your grocery bill. How much has milk gone up in price over the last six months? Cheese? Eggs? Meat? Soda? These are not “exotic” things; they are items your family consumes each and every day. “Greedy oil companies” didn’t cause Milk to go sky-high in price.

Alan Greenspan, now Ben Bernanke, and The Fed did that through inappropriate monetary policy, which led to devaluation of our currency and a resulting rise in commodity prices when measured in dollars.

Of course, the price of oil does also affect the price of these commodities because oil is a major factor of production and delivery. And the oil companies have stopped investing in power, plant and equipment because what’s the point investing in a dying industry? They operate in profit-taking, declining industry mode. (I thought this was rather amusing.) But he’s talking about monetary policy. That’s bad, too. Anyway, these things are all connected. The fact is we are getting screwed nine ways till Sunday, making it easier for responsible parties to point fingers at each other and absolve themselves.

Meanwhile, The Boston Globe returned it’s front page to world series events and ran a downright bleak story on heating oil prices. There’s no candy-coating this one. People are terrified, already cutting back on food in anticipation of trying to afford to stay warm and eat. One middle class family (self-employed carpenter and schoolteacher) is on track to spend $5,700 to heat their house this winter. That’s a lot of money. The article goes into some detail explaining how strong global demand, tight supplies and the fear of something happening have all been driving crude prices upward. Local dealers can no longer forecast costs accurately and therefore, many have stopped offering season contracts at fixed rates.

Wages flat, prices of everything up, massive debt, dollar weak, federal fuel assistance cut…This country is standing at the brink of economic disaster. The next time I see some suit on tv talking happy talk about the economy and the market, I think I will just gag. This is reality for far too many people:

Ellen Sdrollas of West Roxbury lives with her 17-year-old son on a $635-a-month disability check. Even with the new state money, they will likely receive less than $500 in fuel assistance for the winter. Last year, they suffered through a month of midwinter without heat, huddling around a gas oven while they scraped together money to fill the oil tank. Now, she despairs at how long they might go without heat this winter.

“I just don’t know what to do,” said Sdrollas, 51. “We barely eat already.”

At what point do we all understand what’s going on here? The middle class is being systematically destroyed. No middle class, no America.

Survivalists

I found a new site today, and I’m looking forward to digging in. It looks like a brand new blog with lots of valuable information.

There is always one in every family. The one that gets pointed out as weird or crazy or paranoid during family gatherings. I am the one in my family. I am always trying to remind family members to buy extra food or even a first-aid kit. Essentials that most modern people don’t think they need. In this essay I seek to give some clarification to the survivalist archetype.

He makes this one particular point that I completely agree with:

I also see the survivalist as a keeper of traditions. I feel it is extremely important to keep alive the primitive skills that our ancestors depended upon. These very advanced primitive skills include: Fire making, shelter building, hunting/fishing, edible and medicinal plant foraging and making clothing, tools. I am hardly a master of these skills but I am studying them one by one. When I think back at our ancestors and I think of all the knowledge they had to have to simply live it amazes me. They had to know: which plants make anything from rope to medicine, which rocks makes sparks, which can be sharpened, which can be used to break other rocks, which trees are best for all their needs, the habits of animals, the weather, weaving natural materials into clothing and tents. It truly is mind boggling especially in juxtaposition with the specialized modern mind who barely can cook with a microwave. Where typing is the only real skill one has, to earn a living. Even after a little bit of study you have a hard time saying the word “primitive”, cause the level of skill involved is really beyond anything modern man can comprehend.

The question is: how many people would be able to survive without all the technological comforts we’ve grown accustomed to? Could you feed your family and keep them clothed and warm if you did not have a car, a house and money?

One amazing book I read last year was Guns, Germs and Steel: The Fates of Human Societies by Jared Diamond (W.W. Norton, 1997). In the prologue he begins to lay out the argument that so-called primitive people are in all probability more intelligent than so-called civilized people. They can survive under conditions that would cause most of us to perish. Even our more recent ancestors were probably a lot scrappier than the average Joe today. They had to be, just to survive. So do yourself a favor and brush up on some basic skills. If you never need them, no harm done. And get to know your neighbors, because they might know how to do some very important things, too. In the old days, before we got to be such smarty-pants, that’s how communities functioned.

Preparedness

Here is some good information on how to prepare for disastrous events. I can’t say I’ve done all these things, but one of the most important steps is to be mentally prepared. That means considering in some depth the possibility of events going seriously wrong. Thinking back to 9/11, most people couldn’t imagine what had happened. We suffered from a failure of imagination then. People walked around bewildered and stunned. Now many people in this country spend a great amount of time fearing the wrong things and preparing for events like being overrun by hordes of islamofascist terrorists. You know, it’s not the poor brown people from other countries to be afraid of, it’s the rich white guys right here at home that will throw us under the bus. Indeed, they already have. In addition, people commonly brush off anyone who tries to point out the perils and risks around us. The myth of American Exceptionalism lives yet, but it is a myth. Very Bad Things can happen here, and our leaders work diligently to make sure that they do. So it makes much more sense to prepare for the consequences of global warming, peak oil, economic instability, natural disasters, man-made disasters, etc.

I’m just saying.

Preparing for Disaster Part I

Preparing for Disaster Part II

Preparing for Disaster Part III

More Things We’re Not Supposed to Know

From the NY times and AP…The Director of the CDC testified before Congress Tuesday. She said that global warming will cause many severe health consequences to Americans.

They include fatalities from heat stress and heart failure, increased injuries and deaths from severe weather such as hurricanes; more respiratory problems from drought-driven air pollution; an increase in waterborne diseases including cholera, and increases vector-borne diseases including malaria and hantavirus; and mental health problems such as depression and post-traumatic stress.

”These are the potential things you can expect,” replied Gerberding when asked about the items listed. ”… In some of these areas its not a question of if, it’s a question of who, what, how and when.”

Her prepared testimony was almost entirely about the CDC’s preparations, and the health effects were discussed during questioning. But BEFORE she went to testify, she had submitted a much longer and more detailed paper to the Office of Management and Budget for White House review. They cut it from 14 pages to 4 to bring it inline with White House “national priorities”. Hmmm. What kind of White House priorities might those be? Keeping people fat, dumb and happy I guess, so when things really start to come unglued people will not be prepared. They will look to the government (which we paid for with our taxes and which is supposed to serve the people) for help, but it will not come.

I am grateful for people who stick their necks out and try to get the truth in front of the public. Shame on our media for being such tools for so long. They have blood on their hands.