Mohamed ElBaradei visited Iran while Bush was visiting other Middle East countries. This is the most hopeful news article I’ve read in some time.
IAEA spokeswoman in Vienna Melissa Fleming has since confirmed that ElBaradei’s visit has been of a substantive nature, with Iran committing to answering all questions about its past nuclear activities within the coming four weeks, including activities that were alleged by the US as linked to a weapons program. Fleming revealed that ElBaradei was given information on Iran’s “new generation of centrifuges”, which was a topic of considerable interest to the IAEA for assessing the extent of Iran’s technological advancement in the nuclear field. [1]
Fleming claimed ElBaradei was able to “press his case” with his hosts for a suspension of Iran’s uranium enrichment. Conceivably, ElBaradei proposed to the Iranian side an exit strategy for the impasse that the United Nations Security Council currently faces. He told the media he discussed in Tehran “ways of solving the issue as well as ways to negotiate with the United Nations Security Council”. He stressed his intention is “to find solutions for Iran’s nuclear issue so as to turn the problem into a normal issue”. The head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Agency, Gholam-Reza Aqazadeh, also confirmed that “grounds are now being prepared” for resolving all issues and that Tehran has the “necessary political determination” in this direction.
This looks like a big deal, and the timing means that events from now through March will be critically important. A huge power shift is taking place, I think for the better, but it’s very dangerous because the neocons must be desperate to achieve their goals before it’s too late. The window of opportunity inches shut with each day.
ElBaradei being in Tehran has major implications. In Iranian politics itself, it becomes a boost for Ahmadinejad’s standing and is bound to cast its shadow on the parliamentary elections of March 14. The continuing cooperation between Iran and the IAEA makes it virtually impossible for the Bush administration to rake up the matter in the Security Council. The indications are that Paris senses that President Nicholas Sarkozy needlessly antagonized Tehran. European rhetoric on the whole has diminished. Russia and China are able to dig in with greater conviction on the issue in the Security Council, while at the same time they feel more comfortable in pressing ahead with their strategic cooperation with Iran.
All eyes are now on the report of ElBaradei at the IAEA meeting in March. Tehran, naturally, is pinning high hopes that the Iran nuclear file may become a routine affair involving a nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty member country. But the most important outcome of the ElBaradei visit is perhaps its impact in molding regional opinion in the Middle East and in the Persian Gulf region.
It gives the decisive push to the “pro-West” Arab regimes to turn their backs on Bush’s desperate pleas to join an anti-Iran coalition. Even for the most ardent “pro-West” Arab regimes, there is a serious problem now in identifying with the US-Israeli chorus. Equally, this “new thinking” will have implications for the Palestine-Israel peace process, as well as the situation in Lebanon and Iraq. Simply put, Tehran may be on the verge of breaking through to mainstream Arab regional politics - a historic breakthrough.
This excellent article goes on to describe in some detail the current positions of various Arab nations on Iran and the United States. It does not appear that they will be easily drawn into a conflict. US power and credibility, under the scurrilous leadership of George W. Bush, has withered away.
In the Arab world, perceptions matter the most, and nothing hurts more than being made to look foolish. The Filipino Monkey and Jafari have caused havoc on US standing in the Persian Gulf. Washington looks foolish. The Arabs have assessed that the right thing to do is to bide their time until a new president moves into the White House - which is also what Tehran’s substitute Friday prayer leader Khatami advised them to do.
Well, Washington looks foolish because Washington is foolish, and everybody knows it but the very people in power. God willing, it’s time to put the crazies back in the box.
