Archive for December 31st, 2007

Food for thought at the end of the year

This analysis looks at world events from 100,000 feet. I experienced many emotions in the few minutes it takes to read. Some of it is easy to agree with (at least for me), and other parts are harder to accept. What do you think?

It so happens that I am reading this book right now. The great challenge facing us today is predicting what the powerful will do and therefore, what we need to be prepared for. Predicting the behavior of people like Bush and Cheney is one thing. Predicting the behavior of the secretly powerful meta-class is obviously fraught with much greater difficulty. I believe they exist, and they control many events, but can they control everything? No. Even they can’t be sure that events will unfold as planned. On the other hand, I suppose going off-plan is how leaders get themselves assassinated. But still, great wheels get set in motion by events, and these wheels can be difficult to stop. And if you believe that in the end, good will ultimately triumph over evil, you can think of these powerful, greedy people as tools themselves, though they don’t know it.

I mean, you have to have humility to accept that we are completely, utterly weak and powerless against these forces. And yet, Paul the Apostle said, “when I am weak, then I am strong.” So it is a matter of faith that by accepting our nothingness, we open the way for God to work. And events will be beyond our understanding. We are not going to be able to see how all the world’s problems get worked out. It’s too big and complex. But even these people who think they’re calling the shots can not understand. The difference is they don’t know that. They think they are God, controlling the puppet strings of people on earth. They don’t see that they have strings, too.

Silly puppets.

Rigor Mortis

That’s the Bush Administration for you. Disastrous policies? Bankrupt nations? Dying, starving people? Assassinations? Civil unrest? Wars?? Zombie leader doesn’t mind. It’s all good. The response is to stay the disastrous course. We’ve seen this before, and we see it again now with Pakistan.

Kessler and Wright paint a US foreign policy unchanged by the assassination of erstwhile prime minister Benazir Bhutto, one aimed at propping up controversial strongman Pervez Musharraf — and lone pro-US leader in the country — with hundreds of millions of dollars in aid. Next year, the US will begin a five-year, $750 million plan intended to bring jobs and security to restive border regions.

“Despite anxiety among intelligence officials and experts, however, the administration is only slightly tweaking a course charted over the past 18 months to support the creation of a political center revolving around Musharraf, according to U.S. officials,” the reporters write.

“Plan A still has to work,” a senior administration official involved in Pakistan policy told the paper. “We all have to appeal to moderate forces to come together and carry the election and create a more solidly based government, then use that as a platform to fight the terrorists.”

Bush’s policy remains “wedded” to Musharraf despite warnings from experts and others who say his dictatorial methods are “untenable,” they say. The Pakistani president recently deposed Supreme Court justices who would no go along with his plans.

“This administration has had a disastrous policy toward Pakistan, as bad as the Iraq policy,” Robert Templer of the International Crisis Group told the Post. “They are clinging to the wreckage of Musharraf, flailing around. . . . Musharraf has outlived all possible usage to Pakistan and the United States.”

Replied the US official: “We have a room full of tigers in Pakistan. This is a really complicated situation, and we have to use our influence in a lot of ways but also realize we can’t determine the outcome. We’re not dropping pixie dust on someone to anoint them as the next leader.”

Once again, reminiscent of the unrealistic expectations placed on Iran, the US will hold forth completely unrealistic expectations that moderate forces will magically come together in Pakistan and create a more solidly based government from which to fight the evil terrorists. And to facilitate that, we must support Musharraf! There (brushing hands together). That should do it.

Templer contends that without Musharraf, moderate forces, coming from Bhutto’s Pakistan People’s Party, Nawaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League-N, the moderate Balochistan National Party and the mostly Pashtun Awami National Party, could create a new, more legitimate centrist political space.

The US policy will probably result in the exact opposite of what our leaders say they want to happen. Guess what? They don’t really want the moderates to come together. Bush/Cheney would rather have chaos, because chaos will have much more exciting consequences, like this:

“In the best case for the Taliban and al-Qaeda, and the worst case for the world, Pakistan could fall into such turmoil that the very control of the state could fall into Islamist hands, or Pakistan could effectively fracture — with its massive armaments, including dozens of nuclear weapons, falling into the wrong hands,” J. Alexander Thier, a former UN official told the Post.