An interesting dynamic has unfolded in the wake of the NIE.
When the NIE came out, the game plan appeared to change suddenly for the neocons. Norman Podheretz, in particular, complained bitterly and openly that the CIA is out to undermine GWB. The report was also criticized John Bolton (December 9) and various other prominent people on the right (December 7).
Senate Republicans are planning to call for a congressional commission to investigate the conclusions of the new National Intelligence Estimate on Iran as well as the specific intelligence that went into it, according to congressional sources.
The move is the first official challenge, but it comes amid growing backlash from conservatives and neoconservatives unhappy about the assessment that Iran halted a clandestine nuclear weapons program four years ago. It reflects how quickly the NIE has become politicized, with critics even going after the analysts who wrote it, and shows a split among Republicans.
However, Bush/Cheney had some time to strategize before the release. We know that the report had been finished for over a year, and presumably during most of that time Cheney believed he could effectively suppress the report, which he did. But from late October 2007 until the report’s release on December 3, Cheney had time to figure out Plan B. Russ Wellen concluded already by December 5 that Cheney decided to use the NIE findings and wording, specifically that Iran definitively had a nuclear program that was stopped in 2003, to press the case that Iran remains dangerous. In other words, the NIE contains the pieces within it to carry out the original neocon war plans with Iran. They simply need to be arranged and spun just so. Once we’ve all accepted the NIE as valid, Bush/Cheney will use it to start a war with Iran anyway. This is the Trojan Horse theory.
Assuming this theory is correct, in order for it to work, the NIE must be seen as legitimate. Cheney immediately (December 5) made a show of appearing for an interview, and he did so affecting a relaxed demeanor. In other words, he was still in control. However, as pointed out above, the right spent the first ten days ripping the NIE to shreds.
By December 13 the word began to go out in earnest from the White House that This Must Stop. Bush has accepted the NIE results, and therefore we all should, too. Condi Rice gave a wide-ranging interview to ABC News on December 12 in which she said these things:
“They are clearly still states about which there are significant proliferation concerns,” Rice said. “It would be very irresponsible not to deal with those dangers.”
“I don’t think the (National Intelligence Estimate) gives a benign rendering of Iran,” she said. “I see it as still quite dangerous.”
“Since they [the Iranians] have embraced the NIE, I assume that they are embracing the entire thing,” Rice said. “And that means that they must have had a weapons program and that means that they have a lot to answer for.”
We see this week Condi Rice and Gregory Schulte pressing that case, with Schulte stating that Iran must “confess” and cease all nuclear activity.
Similar events have taken place on the Israeli side of the equation. Back on December 6 The Jerusalem Post reported that Admiral Michael Mullen was making a rare trip to Israel for the express purpose of allowing the IDF Chief of Staff and the Defense Minister to make their case against Iran personally, in hopes that the NIE will be reassessed.
By December 10 the Israelis had calmed down a little bit.
Israelis follow the American debate, and as there’s more analysis of the report, and a more careful reading of what it actually says and doesn’t say, it doesn’t look like the damage, in terms of international pressure on Iran, is going to be that great. The initial news reports seemed [to suggest] there was going to be a 180-degree change in American policy, the headlines said that “Iran doesn’t have a military program,†but upon more careful reading that’s not the case.
So Israelis will follow the American debate carefully. But there’s a concern in Israel that the next president, whoever he or she is, will take a year at least to be able to make a policy on Iran, and in the meantime Iran will go ahead and run with its enrichment program. But even that’s being rethought. Listening to the Democratic candidates and a number of the advisors who are likely to play a critical role if the Democrats win the White House, Israelis see more continuity on the Iran issue.
Last week Prime Minister Ehud Olmert “asked” the other ministers to stop commenting on the NIE.
“May I remind you that the cabinet held a discussion on the subject and agreed on Israel’s position. There is no place for private comments by every single minister on such a sensitive and complex issue,” Olmert said.
“Such statements do not contribute to the campaign [against Iran] or to our relations with the White House,” he added.
In a roundabout way, everyone is being corralled back onto the reservation, so to speak. The message is: stop complaining about the NIE. Why? Because it’s not helping.
These people share the same goal, war with Iran, but they cannot all be in on the new route to that goal. Therefore we see this odd talking point dissonance on the right. The usual suspects are completely accustomed to screaming bloody murder over any perceived threat to their interests, real or imagined. Naturally, they reacted this way to the NIE. But for reasons that cannot be laid out in talking points and yet are pretty obvious to people who aren’t hysterical, the NIE needs to be legitimized. So after a week or so of neocons rending their garments and bemoaning this horrible failure of intelligence, the word began to go out to calm down, quiet down, STFU, etc.
I see all of this as confirming the Trojan Horse theory. Furthermore, this tamping down process probably would have kicked in faster and in a more heavy handed manner if Wellen’s theory hadn’t popped up and taken off a mere two days after the NIE’s release. There’s so much kabuki going on (we know that you know that we know…), it’s hard to nail any of it down definitively, but I think this theory does explain current events.
